Dylan Ratigan, everyone’s favourite ex-CNBC/MSNBC journalist, just came back from Italy. He has the following to say about what America needs to do RIGHT NOW (part one) and what is happening to the financial markets (part two):

Part One: https://youtu.be/A_rAWAkKVHg

Part Two: https://youtu.be/2Un6ytSCVLU


Imperial College (London) modelled the death rate of COVID-19 from China/Korea/Italy. Here’s the report:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Jeremy C. Young, an academic, breaks this down on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696?s=20

His takeaway, EVEN IF the US successfully “flattens the curve”:

“And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times.”

“That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense.”

Alarmist? Impossible? Well, we’ll see. In the meantime, since it’s rarely folly to stay on the “safe side” of things, TAKE SOCIAL DISTANCING SERIOUSLY. It is the only way to flatten the curve. And even then...

Human

not come in contact with the virus at least it seems to me. And there is a lot that still needs to be done.

My boyfriend goes to his job, my "husband" goes to his job, and my son goes to his job and I'm exposed to all the people they are exposed to. I work at home, but every contact they have, and one is possibly a coronavirus contact at my boyfriend's job and the management is treating it as not contagious, and so my boyfriend isn't coming over for 3 days (he says that is the time he is supposed to stay away), but I saw him the day he was in contact with the guy. And we don't even know if the guy has the virus as he was sent back to his company in CA and the HR people have chosen not to test him.

So have I been exposed? Have my husband and son? I think my boyfriend certainly has. He is 67, but in very good health.

But by the mere fact that people have to go to work, it is going to continue to spread and it is going to spread faster and faster.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/19/2020 10:30AM by cl2.

Watching Governor Cuomo live right now:

https://www.pscp.tv/NYGovCuomo/1gqxvEBNwAWJB?t=7m33s

Yesterday he mandated a 50% reduction of office work force (density). Today he is increasing that to 75%. So only 1 in 4 office workers allowed at any one time.

That should be national.


cl2, what you write is a national tragedy in the classical sense. And the American unwillingness to test is a scandal of the 1st order, and will forever mar the statistics when all is said and done.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/politics/ron-johnson-coronavirus/index.html

"I'm not denying what a nasty disease COVID-19 can be, and how it's obviously devastating to somewhere between 1 and 3.4 percent of the population. But that means 97 to 99 percent will get through this and develop immunities and will be able to move beyond this. But we don't shut down our economy because tens of thousands of people die on the highways. It's a risk we accept so we can move about. We don't shut down our economies because tens of thousands of people die from the common flu...

"...getting coronavirus is not a death sentence except for maybe no more than 3.4 percent of our population (and) I think probably far less."


That would be 3-11 million people. How much is a human life worth to you Ron Johnson?

So...what's a human life worth to you?

Should we shut down the highways to save lives?

Odds are you could donate more to the government to save lives. Will you?

Reality is that we do place a cost on human life. We don't spend a billion dollars to save a life.

Another reality is that old people die of one thing or another. You can't eliminate all death.

What is a human life worth to you?

Free Man Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So...what's a human life worth to you?

I'm not going to try to place a value on human life. I'm not the one suggesting that economic growth is more important than people's lives.

> Should we shut down the highways to save lives?

We have traffic and safety laws to try to reduce highway deaths - even if that restricts some people's ability to do whatever they want.

> Odds are you could donate more to the government
> to save lives. Will you?

I will if it goes to a program that will be effective in saving lives. Unlike you, I am not so selfish as to have the attitude that I don't care what happens to anyone else as long as I get mine.


> Reality is that we do place a cost on human life.
> We don't spend a billion dollars to save a life.
>
> Another reality is that old people die of one
> thing or another. You can't eliminate all death.

Nobody is suggesting that we will eliminate all death. Are you suggesting that we should not do anything to save lives because everyone is going to die anyway?

It is stunning, isn't it? Every single post he writes is about how other people are getting (or in the usual context gettin') more than he. I'm not sure I've ever encountered a person more lacking in empathy.

The death rate for closed cases has been running between 7-10% worldwide. As of today, it's 10%.

As the healthcare system strains further and then fails under the onslaught, the death rate will continue to rise.

I took the rest of the week off work because I have nobody in wheelchairs to beat up.

Do your country proud, take possibly the next 18 months off.

Do yourself proud, retire.

I am thinking of coming out of retirement so I can be hired to work from home and spend my days socializing online.

I’m very qualified!

We’ll all be qualified soon enough.

(True story from Monday: leadership from a prominent and vital part of a city’s civil workforce, I dare not name the part or the city, when recommended to shut down the offices and send everyone away to work from home, refused because they feared they could not trust their staff to actually do any work. Yesterday they changed course, realizing that that was beside the point.)

The church has lots of money to hire you to cast them in a favorable light here and on Reddit.

You could be a social media influencer.

My dream is to be a social media bouncer!

Italy will surpass China in total number of deaths when the numbers come in later today.

In Maryland, a 5-year old in Howard County has tested positive for Covid-19. She is Kindergarten age. That means that it's possible that the virus was already present in our schools at the time of shutdown.

Johns Hopkins ran a coronavirus simulation last fall (before the virus began to manifest in Wuhan.) The number they came up with was 60 million deaths worldwide.

There are countless Americans right now walking around with the virus and don’t know it, since symptoms are sometimes a few weeks delayed and/or they are asymptomatic.

Best to assume everyone is infected and practice strict social distancing, which means stay home and venture out only for food and medicine. This will be mandated by law soon enough anyway.

(Gasp: 60 million!)

Italy's problem is exacerbated by the large use of Chinese nationals in the Lombard leather industry.

China has bought agricultural and manufacturing facilities --even ports--all over the world ("Belt & Road"). They then bring in Chinese nationals to run and staff these assets. In Lombard, they bought leather manufacturing facilities so that Prada and other luxury goods can be tagged"Made In EU." They then filled them with Chinese workers. (Wonder what happened to the Italians and their jobs.)

Guess where these Chinese came from? Hubei Province, the capital of which is--Wuhan! So lots of them went home for the Lunar New Year, where they feasted on goodies and meats from the Wuhan "wet market," and returned, infected, to Milan.

Besides this, the Chinese released a video to counter perceived anti-Chinese bias. A man walks around with a sign that read, "I'm a person, not a virus. Hug me!" People then go up and hug him. How woke!

So Italy is a special case, as are the data. Since we can't trust Chinese "facts" and data, we need to look at Taiwan and South Korea to get a better idea of this pandemic's"tragictory."

Edit: The Christian "Samaritan's Purse" charity just sent Milan a field hospital with 20 tons of supplies and staff. The US Air Force is bringing patents' swabs from all over the world for testing in Tennessee.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/19/2020 11:30AM by caffiend.

America isn’t even remotely close to facing this as S. Korea has, and it’s already too late as it is.

As for the rest, we’ll see, soon enough. I think it’s wise to prepare for the worst.

Tell us what "woke" means.

caffiend, whether the US looks like SK or Italy is an empirical question which depends on the data curves.

Human is right. The US data are very close to the Italian curve, not the Chinese or Taiwanese or South Korean ones.

Italy just passed China today in terms of total deaths.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I was there and the tour guide waned us continually about not expecting good care in that country because it seldom happens.

The healthcare in the US isn't perfect but it's far better than in Italy.

are now under a shelter-at-home order. It may affect all counties by now - it's difficult to keep up.

BrightAqua Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> are now under a shelter-at-home order. It may
> affect all counties by now - it's difficult to
> keep up.

As I write this, the answer is: Not yet.

Possibly in the future, and whether that is a "near-er" or a "far-er" future is presently unknown.

I have been asleep, but apparently (from a report I just read), the order "just" came down, and it affects the entire state.

56% of Californians (according to the report I read) are expected to get the virus.

This is huge since we have 39 million people.

For anyone who still prays, some good thoughts for us would be appreciated by me, and by all my fellow Californians.

https://www.worlddata.info/life-expectancy.php

Italy does have the fifth highest life expectancy rate in the world. That along with a low birth rate means they have a lot of old people, and they more commonly live with their families than is the case in the US.

The US is #43 in life expectancy if I counted right. Plus I saw a discussion of a report on the Italian health care system by the WHO on TV yesterday. It overall got good marks. They must be doing something right.

I'd take tour guide evaluations with a grain of salt.

BOJ, do you take issue with Neil Ferguson's analysis? Because ultimately this comes down to the quality of the research and modeling.

This is reputedly the best.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

No tourism there.

Whew, that's 20 pages of pretty dense text. Based on the summary and a skim, I agree with them. Further, I think the US is way underestimating this.

For instance, Utah should be taking over HS buildings or putting up temporary buildings to use as hospital overflow. Now! Yesterday.

Predictions: we had 9,000 cases Wednesday. 200 cases a bit over a week ago. My prediction: 100,000 cases in the US in a week, a million in two weeks from tomorrow. If I am off, it will be in timeframe, not total cases. Maybe it will be ten day intervals instead of 7.


FWIW, I think the US is in a better position than most of the rest of the nations of the world. Maybe we will find a treatment protocol. If not,

Kyrie eleison

That report, incidentally, is the one that finally persuaded Trump the problem is real.

In some ways the US is not better situated than some other countries. China, in particular, can use dictatorial powers to impose aggressive actions very quickly. You can't do that in a democracy, as indicated by young people on spring break.

It's also worth noting that Ferguson himself is now ill with COVID-19.

“This disease called COVID-19 will be over much sooner than you think,” God reportedly told Copeland. “Christian people all over this country praying have overwhelmed it. Give Me all the glory, saith the spirit of grace. And many, many people will come to know Me through it. I am still Lord over this nation and I am on the throne and faith in Me changes things!”

"Give Me all the glory, saith the spirit of grace."

God is such a glory whore.

"China experts often say that it's wiser to watch what China does, rather than what is says. That certainly makes sense to us, and one development the BBC is reporting is that after a month of closures, a few schools are reopening in Guizhou province. And, according to China's state-media outlet, over 1.5 million students have now returned to school "as the coronavirus spread has been basically curbed." Other, private, western financial institutions seem to concur.

Moreover, the World Health Organization said on March 9 (just before it declared a global pandemic) that "the virus is slowing in China." So even as the virus picks up speed in Europe and the U.S. we can see the light at the end of the tunnel by observing the Chinese economy. Granted, China's state media and government oversight exert great control over most information, but nevertheless there are nascent signs that production capacity in factories is slowly coming back."

###

"However, by looking just a few months ahead to where China now stands, the temporary nature of this disruption suggests that permanent U.S. job losses will not be on the same scale as the Financial Crisis (though the unemployment rate may temporarily spike higher due to furloughs). If we do get a recession, it shouldn't be a long one (the Financial Crisis officially lasted about 18 months). And except for the leisure and travel industries, we probably won't see widespread bankruptcies as was the case in 2009."

China controlled the virus at a cost of about 4-5% of annual GDP. The economy is in free fall until it reopens its manufacturing and other sectors. Watch what happens then. There will be a second and very possibly a third wave.

Bankruptcies will spread far further than leisure and travel industries.

Chinese school closures have been in a general range of 6-9 weeks. Some have still not reopened.

This will not be a one-wave scenario. Once China gets its economy going again, and trade approaches normal levels, the next one will ensue. The goal is to prevent each of the successive waves from overwhelming hospitals.

Watch China experience a new surge in coming weeks.

The question is whether this will be a "U" (drop, gradual bottom, gradual recovery, then full recovery) or a "V" (same, but sharper, more volatile. If you're right, China is first on the curve, with other nations following.

I think a "V."

The problem is whether Chinese data are accurate and reports are honest. After all, they held back reports in December, having apparently identified the outbreak in November, and quietly closed nearby military bases while pretending that all was well. So their track record is extremely suspect.

I posted two paragraphs from the WSJ, which were quickly deleted. To summarize, this is Warren Buffett's playground. He's been hoarding cash, has $128B (interesting figure!) and loves to buy when the underlying metrics of a sector or company are strong, but have been buffetted (pun) by temporary bad news.

Now, Oh Wise Woman, prithee, where be the market bottom, forsooth?

The V-shaped recovery is medical or economic? Or both?

If medical, how do you respond to those epidemiologists whose experience and models indicate that the diseases will be with us for at least a year and assert that the goal is to flatten the curve over that period to ensure that there are enough hospital beds and ventilators? Because that belies a V-shaped medical recovery and, for that matter, a V-shaped economic recovery.

Or are you just predicting a V-shaped market recovery, which would mean the poor and middle-class are still stuck in the trough of a deep recession.

To what exactly does the V refer?

Regarding China's performance, this paragraph from the newsletter I quoted above:

"Because of Covid-19, China's industrial output fell 13.5% in January and February and retail sales plunged just over 20%. Unemployment shot up to 6.2% last month. While this assumes that China's data is reliable, at least one economic think tank has other data to support these figures: it projects that the country's first-quarter GDP will contract 20% and that full-year growth will be - at best - around zero."

(Me) A possibly very negative variable in all this is that many companies are pulling production out of China. "Vietnam is filled up," said one multinational CEO. "We're looking at Thailand." Also, resurgent US economic nationalism has to hurt them, as we poignantly and painfully realize how dependent we are on cheap (pun) Chinese products.

"Cheap TVs, Expensive Flu," as one columnist quipped.

What newsletter is that?

And what American companies are pulling production out of China?

Fidelity Monitor and Insight--focuses on Fidelity funds.

My source was a piece in the WSJ pre-China virus. Sorry, I can't go back and retrieve that. My thinking is that if this was a trend before, it will intensify now. My expectation is that not just the US, but many other nations and corporations will be reassessing their ties to China.

"The new 'Woke,'" to coin a term.

The movement of companies out of China was due to three things: 1) rising wages, 2) the need to diversify supplies, and 3) more nationalist policy under Xi. Those dynamics will continue.

But I disagree with you on the effect of the virus. The virus is quickly becoming global, and places with less developed healthcare systems, and less dictatorial government, like Vietnam are not going to look better than China. This could make China look better as a production base.

But I think this is largely irrelevant since I don't buy the V-shaped hypothesis. If the disease remains serious, or grows more serious, then production will remain shuttered and trade depressed. There'll be little need for new output capacity for at least a year.

I'll add your three reasons to mine for a long-term Chinese downturn.

I'll stand by my prediction for a "V"-shaped global downturn, under two quarters, which means not a recession.* I think medical, logistical, and other institutions have learned a lot since the last pandemic. For example, new media other than eggs are now available for faster vaccine research and production. Second-world (style) and Third-World economies will benefit more slowly, but faster than they would have fared ten or twenty years ago. They will hinder global economic recovery, but hardly cancel it out.

Researchers all over the world are attacking this, and we're seeing a great deal of international sharing of knowledge and resources. Maybe Chloroquine will be the real thing--or just a flash in the pan. Scientific advances continue to overcome Malthusian doomsaying.

I'm not a cock-eyed optimist, and admittedly not cocksure. But I definitely tilt towards a shorter-than-expected, if very painful, crisis. I also think that we will learn some very valuable long-term lessons, from improved personal hygiene to various nations reconsidering their participation in the "Belt & Road" program** to our own painful recognition of our over-dependence on China--"the new 'woke.'"

Live long and prosper!

* Sorry about that, Bill Maher.
**Italy is the one G7 nation to participate in the Belt & Road initiative.

> I'll add your three reasons to mine for a
> long-term Chinese downturn.

The nearly-complete absorption of surplus labor, the aging of the workforce, and the consequent rise in wages will definitely slow China's growth rate, as they realize and have predicted.


--------------------------
> I'll stand by my prediction for a "V"-shaped
> global downturn, under two quarters, which means
> not a recession.*

Two negative quarters for the United States and other G7 countries, two quarters of substantially lower growth for the world economy and China--meaning a "growth recession. You may be right about the length of actual negative growth numbers, YoY, but that's not the big risk right now. The risk is of a good 19th century depression, not a 1930s Great Depression, but a 1870s or 1890s stagnation. Among the definitions of a depression are three or more years of sub-trend growth, an unemployment rate above 10%, or a peak to trough drop in GDP of 10%. The 2008-2010 Great Recession met all of those criteria, but in our politically correct world we cannot use the "d" word anymore.

I wouldn't worry so much about a recession this year, which may bring only a one- or two-year contraction in GDP, as about an actual depression, meaning several years of subpar growth and stubbornly elevated unemployment. Why? Watch what happens to poor people and the middle class yet again.


---------------
> I think medical, logistical, and
> other institutions have learned a lot since the
> last pandemic. For example, new media other than
> eggs are now available for faster vaccine research
> and production.

I disagree with this. Sure we are smarter than in 1918, but surely that can't be the standard. The question is whether our preparations are commensurate with our understanding of the threat. And there the US in particular has done a terrible job, eliminating the infectious diseases team in the White House and slashing funding for the CDC unit on pandemics was disastrous. Denying the crisis from its inception at the beginning of January until late last week: these are profoundly irresponsible. Then there is the reduction in funding for test kits, the lack of reagents that will become apparent next week, and the lack of surplus capacity in the hospital system. We are definitely smarter about pandemics than in the past, but that does not we are better prepared to face a threat that will transmit far more efficiently in today's interconnected world than a century ago.


--------------------
> Second-world (style) and
> Third-World economies will benefit more slowly,
> but faster than they would have fared ten or
> twenty years ago. They will hinder global economic
> recovery, but hardly cancel it out.

For the past 15 years the single most important driver of growth has been the Chinese economy. If it and the related Asian economies are hamstrung for a few or more years, global GDP will remain a percentage point lower than before this year--and that, by definition, is a global recession and perhaps a global depression.


-----------
> Scientific advances continue to
> overcome Malthusian doomsaying.

No one is exhibiting Malthusian doomsaying. I'm not sure why that term arises in this context.


-----------------
> I
> also think that we will learn some very valuable
> long-term lessons, from improved personal hygiene
> to various nations reconsidering their
> participation in the "Belt & Road" program** to
> our own painful recognition of our over-dependence
> on China--"the new 'woke.'"

I'm not sure what "participatiion in BRI" means. China's economic expansion has been going on for twenty years and will continue to do so. No country can reduce its interaction with a growing economy any more now than when the US was the primary driver of growth. And what is "participation?" I am aware of no such list, no such signature, and wonder why you wouldn't include Germany or Japan or any country in East and Southeast Asia on a list of countries that are increasing their economic interaction with China. Since BRI is not a treaty or other formal structure, everyone in the world, including the United States, is a "participant.


----------------
> * Sorry about that, Bill Maher.

I don't watch Bill Maher, that pretentious huckster of West Hollywood consensus, and hence know nothing of his economic views.


-----------------
> **Italy is the one G7 nation to participate in the
> Belt & Road initiative.

As noted above, I don't know what that means. Everyone is a participant in BRI.

Is China woke ?

Tell us about "woke."

Seems to be some sort of radical right wing extremist pejorative or something.

>>This will not be a one-wave scenario.

That's what I am afraid of. We may end up getting at least three waves similar to the 1918 flu. It makes planning impossible.

The Maryland schools superintendent is asking the state's school systems to come up with a plan for a long-term closure by next week. I'm at a loss as to how they can do that.

I get paid by how many lines I type or edit, so if I'm not working, I'm not getting paid. Sometimes it is a good thing and sometimes not.

Since my post is at the bottom, I'll tell you what I found out today about the guy at my boyfriend's work who shows symptoms of Corona. They say he went to the doctor and he has the flu, not corona. They didn't say if he was tested for either. He is in CA and traveled from CA to Utah on Monday and back to CA on Tuesday. I assume they tested him for the flu given the flu tests are plentiful, but they did say that if he doesn't feel better, they will let everyone know. They've told him to self-quarantine. Oh, now I feel better????



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/19/2020 05:10PM by cl2.

I'm still reading posts (not on this site) from people who think it's an overblown media "false news" campaign or a Democrat plot or a hoax! WTF is with these people?

Some of them are here at RfM.

Lethbridge Reprobate Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I'm still reading posts (not on this site) from
> people who think it's an overblown media "false
> news" campaign or a Democrat plot or a hoax! WTF
> is with these people?

Simple- there is a sizeable portion of the US population that take great pride in their own stupidity. That portion thinks COVID-19 is a hoax or a scheme.

BTW, I am American and therefore have the right to lament how many of my countrymen are FITH.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/20/2020 04:02AM by ookami.

> Simple- there is a sizeable portion of the US
> population that take great pride in their own
> stupidity. That portion thinks COVID-19 is a hoax
> or a scheme.


What about people who two weeks ago said the corona virus was a hoax but now contend they knew it was a pandemic long before anyone else did. Would you characterize them as "stupid" or describe them some other way?

When I went down to our lobby after the quake, it was full of people, some of them wrapped in blankets because they didn't get dressed when they bugged out. It was impossible to be 6 feet apart. There is at least one Jazz player in the building. If we have a major outbreak in two weeks, it will be indirectly from the quake. Stay tuned.

If college students are congregating at spring break sites, same outcome. They are not taking this seriously, and by the time they do, the infection will be all over. Even if the young don't get that ill, they can infect others.

When they start handing out $200 tickets and impounding vehicles of kids on the beach, then the authorities will be serious.

We are already too late to be like S Korea. We still might be able to fare better than Italy.

The restrictions need to be enforced. No question about it.

Something lighter:

Pluto addresses the internets in this time of crisis...

https://youtu.be/p8oxndup1QM