This made me feel better:

https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/p5n4qg/one_of_the_flights_out_of_kabul/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3


I wonder if there are any provisions for people here in the US to volunteer living space?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/16/2021 09:56PM by Tevai.

more hope for hoping . . .

https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/p5f0bu/this_aircraft_was_designed_to_carry_102_it/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Those pilots are violating all sorts of OSHA regulations by cramming so many refugees into a single airplane. They are obviously making decisions on an emotional rather than a rational basis.








PS. They will live their whole lives remembering when they put empathy and common sense ahead of regulations.

You do worry about the weight and balance of the airplane and if your center of gravity is too forward or too aft.

Big airplanes have different weight restrictions having to with fuel, cargo, etc. than the general aviation aircraft that I fly. You might be able to take off overloaded but you might not be able to land if you haven't burned off enough fuel yet.

https://www.sacprogram.org/en/Pages/Boeing-C-17-Globemaster-III.aspx



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/16/2021 11:50PM by anybody.

The OSHA thing is a joke based on another thread. In fact, I'm pretty sure OSHA doesn't have authority over active military operations.

I'm confident the pilots are aware of the considerations you mention and decided they could take what is probably a minor risk. My point is that it is people like they who give American military power a human face.

We need that right now.

Yes. Thank you.


And I've seen some OSHA stuff up close. Sometimes self importance and a chance to feel powerful push things past common sense.

My last line is about OSHA, not about the wonderful pilots.

Lot's Wife Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My point is
> that it is people like they who give American
> military power a human face.
>
> We need that right now.

^^^ this ^^^

We may be watching this century's "Berlin Airlift"

...that all of the planes used can handle the extra weight.

I doubt the weight was a real issue. No matter how tightly the people are packed in there, they will just be one layer deep. The planes are designed to carry tall vehicles made of steel.

Plus, tightly packed, they can’t even all move to the front or back of the plane and screw up the balance.

I am a bit curious, to tell the truth. I’ll see if I can find the load limits for those planes.

I'm sure that the pilots know what they are doing, and can calculate a load. The C-17 can carry a payload of 170,900 lbs.

Thx

Misplaced



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/17/2021 11:26AM by Brother Of Jerry.

Lot's Wife Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> PS. They will live their whole lives remembering
> when they put empathy and common sense ahead of
> regulations.

+1

Is that a chef standing in the back ?

I hope they get lots of children out of there.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/17/2021 01:50AM by kathleen.

Jedediah the Pilot: We're not gonna make it.

Max: We haven't got any choice.

Jedediah the Pilot: between them and us, there isn't enough runway.

Max: There will be.

C17 payload is 169,000 lbs.
If the passengers average 175 lbs each.
Around 965 people would not overload the aircraft.

YMMV.

Ah, gracias. Those look like reasonable numbers. Now to count all the heads in one of those photos! :-/ (I’m guessing that would be well under a thousand people, maybe three hundred or so)

I believe there were 660 or so people in the bay of that airplane. There's no question that the weight is not a problem, as you guys reckon. The rules that I suspect were violated are about secure seats, safety belts/straps, room for passage from front to back, safety in turbulence, etc.

...bathrooms...


I've learned that these are all short flights; no one is jetting over to the Pacific, to go live with The Cat ...

I've been in the bathrooms on those kinds of planes. I think they only have one.

Been a long life. Seems that somebody pushed the "Repeat" button though.

When I was a kid all the TV Movies of the week were about people trying to escape East Berlin and Russian control. Then the wall came down and joy reigned but now the place is filling up with the Muslim extremists. Well all of Europe is. There the muslims are doing honor killings and bombings. (Yes I know there are many wonderful muslim too). Should have left the wall up? That wonderful idiot Reagan meant well, but damned if you do or damned if you don't. Everybody is still trying to herd cats.

We didn't need a wall here. We needed better education for all to have a better society. That money could have gone a long way. Prisons turned into universities. More prison sports. Real education. Not overpriced Brand Name education.


Then the fall of Saigon. So god awful at the time. Now just another note in history of no real lasting effect. Well that's not true. Agent Orange. That was us. But still . . . Saigon. Another vacation destination. Great food!

Some think the Taliban will be happy just having Afghanistan. Perhaps. Sooner or later they will need to find their place in world commerce or dwindle, though. If they had any brains they would start lobbying Disney to build a theme park there. And Disney, the great and abominable whore of all the earth, would do it. Trouble is Taliban are short sighted as all Theocracies are.

Would Disney do a deal that had Minnie in a Burka? Hmmmmnnnn . . .

I know I know. Crazy musings from an old man. Can't help it as the "Taliban-Lite" insurrection on Congress is still fresh in my mind. who are we really?

Perhaps next virus that Mother Earth unleashes in an attempt to rid herself of parasites will be more successful than this last one was. 8 Billion is too many for her to take much more of. How does all the extreme selfishness of Americans weigh in?

Um, Muslims did not enter Europe through Checkpoint Charlie. The Berlin Wall, up or down, was irrelevant.

Nor is Europe filling up with Muslims. They are what, three percent of the population? Four?

I was basing it on this . . .

"Between 2010 and 2016, the number of Muslims living in Germany rose from 3.3 million (4.1% of the population) to nearly 5 million (6.1%), ..." And growing.

I also see this as positive in some regards as the more the world mixes it all up the better. Except they don't. They just establish enclaves. China town. Korea Town. Boy's town. Here Glendale has became at least 50% Armenian in the last few decades. Every race. Every religion. They band together and stick to their carved out spot in the world.


No one want to be just "people." Although I feel thatt here in SoCal we are doing a better job of being just people, together. Not perfect. Still with problems. But it feels a bit like we are getting there.

Maybe I have blind spot because I work with and live with a lot of diversity. My point of view is skewed.

If the muslim population continues to increase by 2% every 7 years, Germany will ion fact be majority Muslim in 154 years.

Which is about as likely as Rodney Stark's projection back in the 1970s (date?) that there would be hundreds of millions of Mormons by the end of this century.

Perhaps my perspective is skewed by growing up in a city that was heavily immigrant, and living in Winnipeg, which has a spectacular level of cultural diversity. They have a big ethnic festival every August that is quite similar to the Greek Festival in SLC. Incidentally, the SLC Greek Festival is quite popular.

Anyway, the Winnipeg festival is not for one ethnic group, but 20 ethnicities the first week, and 20 more the second week, at separate venues around the town. Bus service is both extended and free for the two weeks because (a) parking, especially around the more popular venues, was a nightmare, and (b) alcohol is served, so people are strongly encouraged to take public transport.

It's been going on for about 40 years, but was originally planned as a one year event for about 11 ethnicities. As with the SLC Greeks, it is a major fundraiser. It draws bus tours from Chicago, which is a ten hour drive away.

Last figure I saw, Manitoba was 36% immigrant or first generation Canadian (i.e. the parents were immigrants). They seem quite proud of the fact, so it is possible to deal with a very high level of ethnic diversity.

My own birth city had ethnic neighborhoods, that were quite distinct and separate in my dad's generation. By the 1950s, that system was breaking down, and now it is all gone, and whole new sets of ethnicities are moving in. I grew up in an Irish/English neighborhood. My grandparents neighborhood had been heavily Slavic. Now there are Costa Ricans and Brazilians, among other groups, though there are still Slavs in the hood.


Anyway, high levels of diversity don't worry me. After 2 or 3 generations, the original cultures are mostly assimilated. The only thing Slavic about me is I can name about a half dozen Slovak/Russian foods. That's a pretty thin reed to hang an identity on. Otherwise, I'm about as Slavic as Steve Martin.

Spasebo ;)

ETA: I just looked up the Winnipeg festival. It is 51 years old, and was cancelled last year and is severely scaled back this year. I assume it will return in full next year.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/17/2021 03:04PM by Brother Of Jerry.

Thanks for the statistic.

You really make me want to Winnipeg. What I like about your post is the way it illustrates how nothing stays the same. The pot is always being stirred. Which is our best hope maybe. You don't have to be a majority to have a big impact. Still, it helps.

who calls it Pegiwinnie?



Asking for Mrs. Lot...

Thank Jesus, Jesus, that I spell* better than you.







*It works with an "m" instead of a "p" too!

and it said that a lot of the people "squeezed" in while they were trying to close things up. They showed a young girl being pulled in on some news yesterday. I wish they could take this many out in every flight.

Are they going to be able to get everyone out who needs to get out? From what I'm hearing, I don't think so, but I hope they can. Can anyone answer the question of if the people aren't in the airport area, are they going to be able to get there or not?

Discussion on CNN News:

"Stunning photo shows desperation and panic of the civilians to get out of the country."

How the crew made the flight decision:

"640 men, women, children packed into a US cargo plane. Airport was not secured. Thousands of Afghan civilians made the difficult decision to leave. Those outside made it an unstable situation. Crew of the C-17 made the decision to go [with all the people, including men, women, children/babies on board]."


The airport is now secured. Efforts to evacuate others are ongoing. Other C-17s will take 300 evacuees each trip.

The picture of people running alongside a US plane was the following morning. Tragically, they've now discovered human remains in the wheel well of that flight.

After the modern version of losing Saigon settles down - hit every base and facility built by US and Coalition forces and flatten them. Totally wipe them out. Don't let the rabble benefit any longer from US Dollars.

I expect it to serve the jihad cause all over the world, and for many years to come, as they pursue their "world caliphate."

We elect an administration for 4-8 years. They play a much longer game.

Caffeine nli Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I expect it to serve the jihad cause all over the
> world, and for many years to come, as they pursue
> their "world caliphate."

This is a bit overwrought. The Taliban is a strong force in a tiny and impoverished country comprising four or five different nations. Keeping order there will be difficult, and the Taliban faces major threats in Iran, Russia, and China. They will use American equipment to consolidate their position at home and it won't be too long before the equipment needs spare parts that they do not have.

There's a real chance the Taliban will encourage terrorism against their enemies, but as in the 1990s and early 2000s their biggest potential contribution would be providing a safe haven. They simply don't have the resources to reach far on their own.


-------------------
> We elect an administration for 4-8 years. They
> play a much longer game.

I'm not sure about that. The Taliban has been in existence for 27 years; and the United States has been in occupation of Afghanistan for four administrations and 20 years. In other words, Washington has ruled Afghanistan a lot longer than the Taliban has.

Besides a likely declining market in opium, what else can they do to earn a living? What else do they have that people want to buy?

It is one of the poorest countries in existence; the World Bank helpfully tells me that per capita GDP is $1.50 per day. It is not strength that makes Afghanistan dangerous: it's poverty.

What I mean is that in the 1980s the country couldn't stand up to the Soviet Union and was only enabled to do that by Saudi money, Pakistani diplomatic and strategic assistance, and American weaponry. After the war, the country fell back into the doldrums until Al Qaeda, recently ousted from the Sudan, moved in with its copious financial power. The greatest reason the Taliban would not serve up Osama bin Laden and his buddies was that they were dependent on them.

Today's Afghanistan is absolutely a threat. But it lacks the ability to strike any but its immediate neighbors and is most minatory as a base of operations for other actors. That's where the focus has to be.

Lot's Wife Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Caffeine nli Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I expect it to serve the jihad cause all over
> the
> > world, and for many years to come, as they
> pursue
> > their "world caliphate."
>
> This is a bit overwrought. Not in the least. It took them mere months to take control of the entire country.


> Keeping order there will be difficult, and the
> Taliban faces major threats in Iran, Russia, and
> China.
What makes you think those nations are threats to the Taliban?

I expect a 4-way entente cordiale. china will move in big-time+-it's a perfect color-block for their belt-and-rosd ambitions, and gives them superb positioning vs. Pakistan and India. Mischief in south Asia would serve them very well vs. their Taiwan agenda.

>They will use American equipment to
> consolidate their position at home and it won't be
> too long before the equipment needs spare parts
> that they do not have.

True regarding aircraft, but munitions, trucks, medical supplies, etc? They reaped a bonanza, and I'm sure China and Russia will be delighted to reverse-engineer our aircraft and any overlooked laptops.
>

> They simply don't have the resources to reach far
> on their own.
>
I hope you're wright and I'm rong. But I stand by dismal prognosis.
>
> -------------------
> > We elect an administration for 4-8 years. They
> > play a much longer game.
>
> Washington has ruled Afghanistan a lot longer than
> the Taliban has.
All irrelevant now. They hold all the high cards.

:-(

Caffeind nli Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What makes you think those [Russia, China, and Iran] are threats to
> the Taliban?

This and what follows suggest you aren't familiar with the geopolitics of Central Asia. Let's start with your notion that Afghanistan would want to form a bloc against Pakistan. In fact, the Taliban is a creature of Pakistan's ISI, which many consider more powerful than the civilian government. The new Afghan government would not exist without Pakistan, which has integrated Afghanistan into its military strategy against India. There is no way to divide those two powers, as the United States found out after 20 years of trying.

But look at the three countries you see forming an alliance with Afghanistan. The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan because Moscow feared militant Islam in its southern republics. Although those republics are now nominally independent, Russia dominates most of them and views the Taliban as negatively as the Soviet Union did their predecessors, the Mujajideen. Russia was happy to see the US in Afghanistan because that both weakened the US and prevented Islamists from coming to power in Kabul. The American withdrawal removes the constraint on Afghanistan and renews the geostrategic threat Moscow perceived in the late 1970s.

Beijing and Kabul are conducting diplomatic talks right now and there is a slight chance of their reaching a limited detente but not much more; for they in fact have contradictory national interests. Afghanistan is an Islamic fundamentalist state that wants friendly relations in Central Asia while China is a country waging something approaching ethnic cleansing against its Muslim citizens. Are we supposed to think the Taliban will tolerate that or is China supposed to stop oppressing the Uyghurs?

For its part Tehran despises the Taliban. The former is a Shi'ite state whose Farsi-speaking warlord allies in Afghanistan have just been crushed by the Sunni Taliban. The chief target of Iranian terror is in fact Sunni states like Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, etc. That's one of the reasons that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are so close to the Taliban: a strong Afghanistan is a check on Iranian influence in Central Asia, the Gulf, and elsewhere.


---------------
> I'm sure China and Russia will be delighted to
> reverse-engineer our aircraft and any overlooked
> laptops.

Almost all of the equipment the US has deployed in Afghanistan is stuff the Chinese and Russians have already reverse-engineered. The more intriguing possibility is that the Taliban might provide the equipment to Pakistan, but even there it's likely the ISI is already familiar with that technology.


-----------------
> I hope you're wright and I'm rong. But I stand by
> dismal prognosis.

Oh, the Taliban's victory is dismal, to be sure. But it's important to figure out what sort of dismal it is--and the biggest threats are 1) the unlikely but possible inception of a war in Central Asia, 2) the use of Afghanistan as a base of operations for other terrorists, and 3) the loss of American prestige.



---------------
> hey hold all the high
> cards.

They hold a lot of cards.

Current estimates are 5K-10K, but no one knows. Some estimates range to 50K. 2 big problems: there is no infrastructure or transit to get people in the provinces to Kabul, and the Taliban has cordoned off the airport. You get to s plane only with their permission, unlikely if you are identified as a "collaborator." And they shoot people climbing the airport wall.

The US State department told Americans to "shelter in place." Then what? The Taliban has ordered all US military out of the country by 9/11.

I think it will all come down to relying on "the good offices" of (probably Islamic) 3rd party nations. The Taliban holds all the high cards. What a mess.