It's not just those high school senior boys, but I can guess that plenty of 19 year old girls are also applying, especially if they have a boyfriend who just started his mission.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/19/2012 03:07PM by adoylelb.
This way they can get their mission in and get married sooner to their RM. Otherwise they would be going right when their boyfriend is getting home and he might marry someone else while they are away.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the surge go even a bit higher in the next couple of weeks. It can take a while to get all the i's dotted and the t's crossed on those papers.
Just think over a 10 -fold increase in expenses to train the missionaries.
Ten fold increase in air fare to get them to the missions.
They certainly don't have the logistics in place to train that many. This will certainly be the Pig In the Python bulge in numbers that the Church will have to deal with.
I feel sorry for these kids. A lot will come home early I will bet you.
It will take them months to get them all through the mission homes. There will be a sudden drop off in the next few weeks as all the eighteen year old finish applying. Number of men applying will go back to the same at that time. Do expect them to get a couple hundred applications a week more for a while, because of the increase in sisters applying for missions though.
Also, there is no way that the GAs can receive revelations for all of those people. They will probably give up on the game that the GAs assign all the missionaries. Watch for them to assign a special council that only does missionary assignments, heading by a GA, which will become a permanent fixture, thus allowing the old geezers to spend more time building malls.
That sounds almost exactly right for a year's worth of kids catching up with the new rule on top of the newly eligible. They would expect 8400 plus half of the kids that would have been lost through attrition while waiting that extra year. The reported number is probably a ballpark figure, but it doesn't look like they have actually made any real gains so far recovering those kids they lose through attrition.
That is a very interesting case study - for the figures mainly. It looks like the church has been reliant on natural increase for its real growth and limited family sizes over the past few decades are starting to hurt!
This was interesting: --------------- "The age reduction for single women serving missions also has strong potential to contribute to large increases in the full-time missionary force as the minimum age for service was reduced by two years and that this age reduction will expand opportunities for young single adult women to serve a mission prior to post-high school education and marriage. In 2007, 13% of the missionary force were single women,[5] or approximately 7,000 people. In October 2012, Elder Nelson reported that the percentage of single women serving missions increased by 12% since October 2010 when President Monson pleaded for more members to serve missions. If the sister missionary force were to double within a year and the percentage of sister missionaries within the full-time missionary force has not noticeably changed between 2007 and October 2012, the Church would likely experience an increase of approximately 7,500 sister missionaries by October 2013." -----------
I suspect the impact of the two-year age reduction for women could be more than a doubling of female missionaries. If I were a teen still at home, this would have almost guaranteed that the pressure would have been on for me to go on a mission. My parents knew I was not going to marry early.
What say the ACTUAL target of the changes is the female missionaries. There is a huge discrepancy between active males and females of that age (there was a recent talk addressed to females acknowledging that nearly half would not marry a worthy priesthood holder, and advising them to not marry rather than marry a non-member).
For the same reasons that it has been traditionally important for males to serve, it would be important for these potential life-long tithe-payers to serve to have them psychologically committed for life. It would keep them more likely to remain committed to the church rather than find a non-member husband who starts infecting them with historical questions (especially when he starts watching his wife throw 10% of her income down the toilet!). If there are potentially at least as many female missionaries as there are male, then the down-turn in numbers can be papered-over by increasing the female missionary force - increasing their participation over the next decade can foster the illusion of growth, even if male numbers start going backward.
That is the later or non-marrying females. The two-year drop for females also has an insidious effect on those who ARE intending to marry instead - it lowers the marrying age. When I was a young woman the missionary age was the psychological bar - either you were the marrying kind who married before that (and considered herself and other women to be an old-maid at that age), or you were "spiritual" and heading on a mission, or a rebel. By lowering the age two years, I think the proportion of rebels will drop as girls marry earlier or go on a mission as standard. The younger married women may be more likely to have children earlier, which usually means more kids - a bonus for the church.
But they can't have females think they are important. They are being treated as a foot-note, even though I think their behavior may show the biggest change. Watch out for subtle changes to the culture of 'service' with more pressure on the women.
I predict that HQ will quickly send out a letter to all the SPs in the USA/Canada that there will be no more applications processed in October (except for the ones already received) and that they each have a monthly quota of approx 2 Elders and approx 1 Sister per month for Nov/Dec that can't be exceeded and that this quota will be adjusted for their Stake throughout 2013/2014 and eventually lifted according to criteria that HQ will establish for their Stakes. That way the HQ won't have to say something like "we goofed, no applications from girls younger than 20 or boys younger than 18.5 before the summer; then 19.5 for girls & let all the boys in until year-end 2013; then 19 for 2014 on the girls; and then finally 19 minus 3-4 months in the summer of 2014. It'll be up to each SP to use "prayer" and know they'll look like mud if they try to go over their quota w/o pre-approval.
They're going to have a surge and need about another 110-150 missions in the short-term. IMO it'll be a good excuse to get rid of the 50-60 lowest profit missions once the surge winds down. You can say goodbye to a third to half of the remaining Euro/Japan/Korea/Australia missions between now and 2016. In the meantime they all stay open until June 2014. I also predict a surge of about 600 senior missionaries (primarily from the ranks of former TPs, MPs and 70s) to serve special leaderships calls ASAP to be put under the MPs in charge of field training as the way the MTC is going to handle the surge is by kicking the mishies out in half the time and the MPs are going to be flooded with people (over 220 on average each by summer).
Oct 2012 = 58K total - 347 missions Oct 2013 = 88K total - 480 missions (lots of 2 year surge calls for 2 years where they purposely split large metros like Philly, Chicago, and Boston for the short-term) Oct 2014 = 77K total - 450 missions (good excuse to close 30 more of Europe/Asia in one big swoop) Oct 2015 = 65K total - 370 missions (shut down 70 surge missions and 10 more of Europe/Asia + other low profit areas) Oct 2016 = 65K total - 360 missions (shut down another 10 low profit areas) Oct 2017 = 67K total - resume normal stagnation (but slight uptick as more mishies in surge = more dunkings of young adults = more converts serve missions) Oct 2018 = 69K total Oct 2019 = 70K total (the internet isn't going away so declines will come to pass)
They just found out that serving a mission is the same as "serving your country" during war time from Ann Romney, so they are eager to show the world how tough and unafraid of danger they are!
Being 18 and mormon, they probably think they'll get Veterans benefits when they return.
I don't know what was funnier from that exchange. Ann Romney's making a big deal about a mission, or Whoopi Goldberg having Mormons confused with the Jehovah's Witnesses.
Okay...it is being pushed by the parents, believe me. I know of one mom who is so excited for her 15 yrs. old. She will be this way for three yrs.
The kid surely wants to get it over with and then come home, marry and finally experience sex....right? Well, not really. I know many mormon boys who have had sex as a mid teen....one impregnated one girl and the boys MOM couldn't get the judge to allow HIM to raise the child so the boy's mom said....Let the girl have the kid. NICE mom....if you can't brainwash it fully then let's pretend it never happened. This is a fact....my daughter dated this boy for 6 months before he told her this. My daughter and he did break up. Thank goodness. That is how much of a momma's boy he was.
I hope it is all for show now and after awhile they will see what a poor decision this was- to not evern allow the kid to start college. But the one who commented above about what Ann Romney said is right. She made it sound like a mission and serving your country in the service are one and the same. Now that is just ODD!!
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/19/2012 08:59PM by honestone.
I don't believe the number either. It's simple logistics. You have to do a whole lot of stuff before turning in your papers. Wisdom teeth, dentist filling out paperwork, ditto for doctor, eyes checked, I think, plus it's a crapload of stuff to fill out on your own. The announcement wasn't made long enough ago.
I was told something about redoing boundaries a few years ago by someone who had it "on good authority". Yeah, total load of poop.