On another thread http://exmormon.org/phorum/read.php?2,937395,937684#msg-937684 the OP wondered whether Uchtdorf will be next Prophet. Extremely unlikely unless they change the rules.

Most of those in the running are old and don't look too healthy - Packer, Perry, Nelson, Scott, Hales. The younger, healthier ones seem to be Oaks, Ballard and Holland (who is 8 years younger than the other 2). So, I think any prophets before Holland will be short term and hampered with health issues.

Here is my reply to the previous OP:-

Uchtdorf is a long way off unless they start dying like flies or they change the rules (quite possible).

Without a change of rules, my money is on Jeff Holland being the next prophet to make any significant contribution. There may be others before him, but they will be short term 'lame ducks' IMO except Oaks or Ballard.

Holland has now been an apostle for 19 years. When he was first called the buzz was he would likely be a Prophet due to his relative 'youth' (he was only 54 and a rising dynamo). This was also said of Oaks.

Holland now has clout. He is the chief proponent of the truthfulness of the Book of Mormon, is central to repositioning the church vis a vis the 13 articles to be published and the 'John Dehlin/NOM/Faith Crisis type movement. He was also prominent on the recent worldwide broadcast of an important announcement (damp squid).

Anyway, here are the ages and speculations where his name comes up consistently whether they live to 85 or 100.

Apostles Seniority

after Packer the seniority is

L. Tom Perry ordained an apostle April 11, 1974 born 1922
Russell M. Nelson ordained an apostle April 12, 1984 b. 1924
Dallin H. Oaks ordained apostle on May 3, 1984 b. 1932
M. Russell Ballard ordained an apostle Oct. 10, 1985 b.1928
Richard G. Scott ordained an apostle Oct. 6, 1988 b.1928
Robert D. Hales ordained an apostle April 7, 1994 b.1932
Jeffrey R. Holland ordained an apostle June 23, 1994 b.1940

Therefore if we assume death by age 93 JRH becomes prophet at age 85 and lasts 8 years after 8 years as President of 12

Prophets since David O. McKay - name, age at call and age at death

Joseph Fielding Smith 94 96 after 19 years as Pres of 12
Harold B. Lee 73 74
Spencer W. Kimball 78 90
Ezra Taft Benson 86 95
Howard W. Hunter 86 87
Gordon B. Hinckley 84 97
Thomas S. Monson 80 ?

So, only 3 long term Presidents Kimball, Benson and Hinckley. Monson is already seen as a 'lame duck' despite relative youth. Hinckley was the longest serving and in best health.

Only 3 lived beyond age 90 - Joseph Fielding Smith (less than 2 years) Benson (senile in later years) and Hinckley

If we assume death by age 90 JRH becomes prophet at age 82 and lasts 8 years after 8 years as President of 12

Oaks and Ballard are only ones ahead of Holland in seemingly good health and they are 8 and 12 years older than Holland who seems to be in good health apart from being over weight.

On similar criteria Oaks become president at age 85 (assuming 93 cut off) or 82 (assuming 90 cut off) - same as Holland but less time as Pres of 12

If they all live until 100 (including Monson and Packer) we get

Monson until 2027
Oaks at age 95 for 5 years
Holland at age 92 for 8 years

So, there you have it, Oaks and Holland as favourites with Holland serving for longer.

If they were to die aged 85 (existing older ones in next 3 years) picture would be Oaks briefly (1 year) then Holland for 8 years.

The money must be on Jeff.

That is my prophesy in the name of Jesus Smith. If it happens, you will have further evidence that I am a prophet. If it doesn't it is because I am speaking as a man or God has changed His mind again.

Tom Phillips

Or, if it doesn't, it is due "to the sinfulness of man."

Good thinking. Of course there could be a fatal epidemic illness all could catch together. I especially like the idea that God can change his mind. If that it not the case, what is the purpose of prayer and why did Christ ask if the plan could be changed in Gethsemne? Of course TSCC isn't part of the plan anyway.

Is there a plan? What God would use prayer as a means to change plans? I'll help you find your keys but that kid can starve. War is a wonderful gift of God? Who has the knowledge of this plan - a church, a person? If there is a God, he has nothing to do with our lives. If he does, he's an evil and vindictive God.

Yup, go ahead and have imaginary conversations with that evil and vindictive god... Hope it helps believers sleep at night while abused children pray for rescue that never comes. And if that's all just part of "the plan", believers are sicker in the head than I already think of them.

One thing is for sure. For the forseeable future the TSCC will be led by someone who is:
Male
White
Old
Politically Conservative
Resistant to meaningful change

Exactly! Even if they do change how they choose the new president, nothing will change. White, old, conservative, TBM to the core.

releve Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Exactly -- that is the pattern. Doubtful it will change. Some change in policy is expected, but anything major? Nope. Not in this generation.

releve Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> One thing is for sure. For the forseeable future
> the TSCC will be led by someone who is:
> Male
> White
> Old
> Politically
> Conservative
> Resistant to
> meaningful change


I thought those were all requirements of the position?

My TBM dad did this exact calculation once and came to the same conclusion. Holland will almost certainly become church president at some point.

IMO BH (Holland)he is too much a loose canon

He would cause more youth to leave..he's a bully and I

don't think.The other bullies don't respect or like him.

Monson was a bully, didn't stop him.

I agree Holland is a loose cannon and I am sure he was censured for his email to me.

However, rules are rules until they change them. Succession is based on seniority unless they choose to change the rules. Historically the problem has been they needed unanimity for major changes and junior apostles would never openly disagree with their seniors. So why would the senior, next in line, agree to change the rules.

It would require a 'coup'. Not impossible but not very probable either. I don't know if the relatively junior apostles who are counsellors (Eyring and Uchtdorf) could wrest temporary power while they are counsellors, due to Monson's diminished faculties, and sign off on corporate rule changes. Interesting thought.

Another way for a 'coup' is a stop Packer campaign amongst the apostles, or the Presiding Bishop confiscating all the assets. They would have to study Shakespeare's "Julius Caesar" for ideas and consequences on such strategies.

LOL. I can see it now. Brutus Udork and Cassius Eyering plotting against Caesar Monson. Antony Packer with his tank and tubes that help him stay the head airbag, eulogizes Monson and rallies the obedients. And the coup begins. Beware the ides of Geezer-time.

Meet the new boss

Same as the old boss

What the Mormon Church really needs to do is to implement retirement for its top leadership positions, as they have already done for the 70s quorums. Make it something like age 75 and then put them on emeritus status and let some fresh blood into the quorum. Put the old guys quietly out to pasture.

Tom, I don't have the energy to figure it out, but what would happen if they started retiring these guys? They probably wouldn't start with age 75 as I suggested because that would kick out too many of them all at once. But what if they did 85 immediately, then started dropping it by one year every year until they got down to 75? If they did that, how long would it take to get rid of the entire current crop?

If the pope can resign, why couldn't Mormon leaders retire?

Well, they already retire the Seventy at age 70 so 75 or 80 would seem reasonable for apostles.

But, as I said above, the old guys need to agree to this, which they won't. There has to be a coup or take over by the younger guys for this to happen. Maybe the women can be organised for the General Relief Society President to become prophet and change the rules.

The idea of a corporate sole is that everything is vested on one person (man in this case) who, in theory has sole power. If that were true, Monson could change the rules immediately as effects his successor. That gets rid of the Packer threat and could open it up to younger leaders. That should appeal to Monson who disagrees with Packer and would like the concept of youth. After all, he was a bishop at 21, an apostle at 30 and had to wait until he was 80 to be prophet because his predecessor lived to be 98!!!

Just think, if Hinckley had died aged 85 Monson could have been prophet at age 67. He would have liked that.

Trouble is Hinckley built safeguards into the 'corporate sole' model when a counsellor for Benson (ask Steve for details), so that Hinckley has had effective control of the church for a period longer than he was prophet.

Monson has junior apostles as counsellors so they may help him to effect the change.

In other words, I think Holland will be a real crap shoot. As a previous poster said, he is a loose cannon.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/27/2013 10:19AM by Brother Of Jerry.

Elder Holland? Significant?

Nah....

I didn't mean 'significant' as a compliment. I meant it in the sense that the 'short termers did not really do anything. Since DOM the only ones who brought change of any significance were Kimball (priesthood availability and the sin next to murder plus serving a mission became a commandment), Benson (flood the eart with the BoM) and Hinckley (temple construction and spin doctor extraordinaire).

Holland would be significant as a dodo. He is a lying hypocrite but that is a number one qualification to be Prophet (example - Joseph Smith).

The first presidency has always left the dirty work for the twelve. If you think that Holland is a loose cannon, take a look at Benson previous to becoming president.

I think that the wording about succession leaves room for change. The senior apostle "will preside" the fourteen apostles will "choose". The word "choose" implies that inspite of seniority and precedent, there is a choice to be made. That being said, I think precedent will remain. It's simply a matter of which old guy lives long enough to make it to the top of the list.

Monson could be around for another fifteen years in some sort of diminished state. Then there is the big unknown. Some of these old men have chronic illnesses, but cancer could change the rankings pretty quickly.

One factor which must be taken into consideration is the division of the leadership into powerful factions fighting for control of the world-wide Mormon empire.

I believe they will stop at nothing. My evidence is the ascendancy of Gordon B. Hinckley and his pyramid-like penchant for building temples all having cornerstones bearing his name.

I have noticed the G15 leaning towards (tried and true?) Catholic solutions. The removal of leaders through assassination is much more difficult these days due to forensics, sharing of conspiracy theories via internet, eyes everywhere because people have cellphones, etc. It was almost impossible to keep a demented leader quiet even with drugs.

I believe popes and prophets alike have been murdered for the good of the cause "better one man perish...etc." Catholicism is like the street-wise older brother who can wise up the younger kids in the family.

Increasingly, the Mormon Church has been using Catholic solutions. "Speaking as a man" comes directly from their apologists explaining the time when there were three popes, they had mistresses, they made obvious mistakes, sided with the Nazis or whatever.

In the current panic mode caused by the Mormon Apocalypse (aptly named by oncoming storm-bc), I think they will use the Catholic solution of ridding themselves of an old/incapable/demented/non-functional leader by announcing an "administrative policy change" permitting prophets to retire. It will be a heralded as an act of compassion due to the increased longevity afforded by the advances of science.

"The Lord has taken pity on his servants who have served long and well...blah, blah." There will be a Emeritus status established and the retired prophet will be trotted out to ceremonial functions to much hoopla and fanfare.

Since the word "prophet" is being retired, it will be "President Emeritus" OR they may actually restore the title of "Patriarch" so they can claim that they made no change and the church always did have a patriarch. Nothing to see here, people, move on.

I think this change will be necessary to allow them to move quickly through the seniority deadwood which is clogging the river. They need young, vibrant leadership for the Mormon Revival which will surely be attempted after all administrative changes have been made and have failed to stop the hemorrhaging.

After a decent waiting period, probably after they have retired three prophets due to health reasons, they will institute a Grand Consensus method of choosing the leader so that the dominant faction can pick who they want. That way all they have to do is arrange an accident for the leader of an opposition faction within the group. The secrecy which has always surrounded the inner machinations of apostle politics will shield their manipulations from public view.

The Grand Consensus will be presented to the membership as additional evidence that God speaks to his church. The selection of the leader will be based on revelation instead of seniority. The test of such revelation will be that it comes to more than one of the apostles--indeed that the Lord's whisper will be confirmed to each of them.

This is how Spencer Kimball and others have already described the decision-making process within temple square, so they would just be applying it to the selection of the next leader.

It will be hailed as a spiritual answer to the challenges of the day - sort of God stepping up you might say.

Or just clueless old men copying what has worked for the Whore of All the Earth.

We have already seen Mormons throw out the sacred restored temple ceremony (the whole purpose for the restoration) based on the results of a survey and focus groups. AND IT WASN'T EVEN COMMENTED ON- no announcement, explanation, nothing, nada.

The musher does not provide explanations to the dogs when he changes direction.

So that establishes that the Mormon Church is actually a mini "Whore of All the Earth as well. And having established what they are, as the old joke goes, all that remains is the "all the earth" part.

The internet member pimping program will provide the worldwide contact in the future.

So sayeth Anagrammy, who in her dreams waits for the apostate Black Horse savior--you know, one who rises in the last days to represent reality and save the members from the enemy oppressor, one chosen who embodies every aspect of Mormon hatred and exploitation:

African or Native American, gay, female, former BYU science professor, who calls a press conference to hand out a detailed financial statement for LDS, Inc. She then conducts a tour of the vault, comes out of the closet and with her lifetime partner at her side, announces their apostasy.


Anagrammy

I vote for you Anagrammy as the next President of TSCC. Only trouble is, you don't do the lying, hypocrisy, delusion thing.

So you would have to make it a 'real true church' for you to accept the role of President. How would you do that?

Tom

Jeff Holland's effort to demonstrate intelligence with its lexicon, his arrogance and his failure to answer simple honest questions contributed greatly to the loss of my testimony. Thanks to Jeff Holland I decided to go all the way on my investigation for the truth.
He has been a significant inspiration to me.

His tendency to say different things to different people and to get emotional in an effort to manipulate the membership and others has caused me to lose respect for Elder Holland. I know that these are tools used by politicians and businessman to gain favor, but they really rub me wrong.

The arrogance is just the tip of the iceberg, IMO.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 06/27/2013 12:04PM by sstone.

JRH can not answer simple questions from a reporter.

Always in motion, the future.

I'm already contemplating a Bednar presidency. The Morg sphincters will be working overtime spitting out diamonds when that happens.

That's a long way off, more than one generation maybe. And what makes anyone think anything would change? It's the same old God Myth claims, the same system, the same volunteer system with no training... and on and on...

There should be wagers on this stuff in Vegas Casinos.

I do not think the Vegas Establishment would care.

Haven't Holland and Oaks (god, that sounds like a shitty cover band) been running much of the church behind the scenes for a while now?

Much like Gordon Six Bs Hinkley did when others were too enfeebled?

Hall and Oates was no shitty band, they where great!

Holland is in his own words "A dodo"